Three major suppliers — EDF, E.ON Next and British Gas — are forecasting a January cap between £1,932 and £1,970, against £1,723 today. Ofgem confirms the real number in late November. Forecasts can be wrong, but the smart moves are the same either way, and they're all better made before the announcement than after. In order of impact:
Standard variable tariff? January's rise lands on you automatically. Fixed? You're protected until it ends — check the end date and any exit fee. Five minutes in your supplier app settles which camp you're in; everything below depends on it.
Suppliers reprice fixed deals around cap announcements. If you want winter certainty, the fixes on offer before the announcement are priced on today's expectations; wait for confirmation and you're choosing from deals that already include the news. If you'd rather ride the market both ways, staying variable is a legitimate choice — make it deliberately, not by default.
The £150 Warm Home Discount is paid automatically this winter to qualifying households — but only if the benefit recipient is named on the electricity account. Moved house or switched recently? Fix the name now. Full details on our bill help page.
A household that can move washing, dishwashing and charging into cheap hours typically saves £200–£400 a year on a smart tariff versus the cap — more than most insulation projects, for free. Which smart tariff suits which household is the guide to start with.
Thermostat down one degree, draughts dealt with, radiators bled, heating timed rather than left on. Individually small, collectively the difference between noticing January and not. The full ranked list is here.
That's how long a switch typically takes to complete. Start in October or early November and your new tariff — and any switching credit — is settled before the announcement becomes January bills.
A fix is only good if its twelve-month cost beats what you'd otherwise pay at your usage. Compare the quote against your annual kWh, not the headline. Certainty has a price; make sure it's one worth paying.
Octopus covers all three routes — variable, fixed, and the UK's widest smart-tariff range — with no exit fees on variable tariffs. Switch through our referral link and you get £50 credit; we get £50 too, which is how this site is funded.
Switch to Octopus — Get £50 →Forecast sources: EDF, E.ON Next, British Gas supplier predictions, October 2026. Cap figures: Ofgem. Verified 17 October 2026. Forecasts are predictions, not Ofgem decisions.